Thursday, June 12th 2008

The Truth:  Miscellaneous

Vegas Calls McCain

By Skwerl

So back when Hillary and Obama were still fighting over who would get the chance to fuck up the 2008 election, I often found myself very unsure about what to do with my vote, free time for research, and a small amount of disposable income I could contribute to any campaign I could get behind. I like Hillary and I like McCain. They both have what it takes to run a country. They’ve both got a massive amount of experience. They’re both articulate and well-spoken. When either of them talk, you can believe what they’re saying. And they’re both tough enough to keep foreign jerkoffs in line, without the stupid ignorant cowboy shit we’ve all had enough of.

Then out of nowhere comes Barack Obama. He’s running the best campaign I’ve ever seen. He knows how to use the internet. He is not afraid to throw tradition out the window. He’s young, he’s got attitude, he inspires and excites people. He’s a politician for people who hate politicians. But every time I’d watch him speak, all I’d get out of it is rhetoric. Empty rhetoric from someone essentially trying to go from burger flipper straight to CEO of McDonald’s. Granted it was all far more eloquently stated than Bush could ever hope to manage, but otherwise it was the same exact shit I’m sick of, just coming from the other team. America’s economy and foreign relations needs some serious attention right now, from someone who knows what the fuck they’re doing. I’m all for the rock star nominee, but I’d personally rather have him run in 2012 once someone a little less reckless than Bush, and for that matter, a little more in control and on top of shit than the new guy, has straightened things out a little. It looks a lot to me like Kennedy all over again, and I see Ahmadinejad running circles around Obama the same way Khrushchev ran circles around Johnny Boy. 

And the whole time, I’m watching the Democrats fight amongst themselves while the Republicans did something they’ve always done well: unite. Bush probably hates McCain but he got his back for the good of the party. And McCain will surely pick the candidate that gives the party the best chance of winning over the best candidate, if that best candidate could be a liability. Now I don’t really respect this way of thinking, but it’s a fight, and the dirtier fighter always wins. And a great candidate is worthless to the party if they don’t get the office.

At some point, I made a joke: I’m going to vote for Obama, but put money down on McCain in Vegas, because the Democrats are gonna fucking blow it again.

And then I got an interesting piece of spam, from Bodog. New gamblers get a 10% bonus on their first deposit. I wondered- are they taking bets on the election? Of course they are; Vegas will take bets on fucking anything. I brought up the odds. You could bet on who would win the Presidency; between Hillary, Obama, and McCain, and McCain was the underdog. Odds were 7 to 5 against him. So if I were to add $100 to my account, I’d get an extra $10, and if McCain won, I’d get $154. Then it occured to me that I had a stimulus check of about $600 coming to me, courtesy of Mr. George W. Bush. How poetic it would be to double that by betting on another 4 to 8 years of ass-fuckery? $600 would net me $924!!

But I’m still waiting on my stimulus check. Long story.

So today I get paid, and I start thinking about putting some money on McCain before it’s too late. I go back to Bodog to check the odds, and I’m disappointed to find that they’ve drastically changed. With Hillary out, McCain is now the favorite. With the new moneyline, even with the 10% bonus, that same $600 would only net me $330 if I risked it today.

But this tells me something interesting: With Hillary in the race, McCain is the underdog. With her out, McCain suddenly has a chance. I’ve heard this from a million different places, and I’ve heard the opposite from just as many. But they’re all biased. Talking heads, polls, blogs, fuck it all. Las Vegas doesn’t let bullshit like hope or fear get in the way of decisions- they call the better fighter and make a whole shit ton of cash by being more right than you. The Republicans are hustlers, but they wish they could hustle like fucking Vegas. If their money is on McCain, then so is mine.

In the end, I found someone offering a better moneyline: Johnny Firecloud. He took a $100 bet at even odds. He said, “…I agree that all historical cues point toward Obama never sitting in the oval office, but I can’t help but think / hope there’s some kind of collective waking the fuck up beginning to happen.” I’d like to believe in that too. Either way, I’m not voting for McCain. But naïveté and idealism are going to continue to cloud a lot of Democratic voter judgment, and I’m betting that ‘fuck middle america’ elitism and party strife is going to hand the office to the GOP once again.

At least this way, if we all lose, I win.